There have been talks and talks and more talks about whether the Phillies should trade Joe Blanton or keep him around for 2011. A recent guest columnist on Crashburn Alley argues that the Phillies should hold onto Blanton at least through the All-Star break in hopes that he regains some value and can then be traded without the Phillies having to eat any of his salary.

I think that’s sound enough reasoning, but I maintain that the Phillies should go with the option that will guarantee them money in return… This is not a comment on how I think Blanton will perform in 2011, rather a comment on financial sense on the Phillies’ part.

1. If the Phillies keep Blanton…

**Disclaimer: The percentage values assigned with each scenario are assuming randomness, not factoring in Blanton’s past performance or predicted future performance.**

Best Case Scenario: Blanton shocks all doubters and posts insane numbers, making the Phillies’ rotation even scarier than ever imagined. The Phillies win the World Series. The $17 million paid to Blanton over the next two seasons are well worth it. No money freed up for other deals, but that’s no matter. Percent chance, given the Phillies keep Blanton for 2011, this scenario happens: 33.3%

Middle Case Scenario: Blanton does a little better than in his 2010 campaign and manages to push his value up so that the Phillies have to eat little to none of his salary. But they will have already paid him somewhere in the $4 million range. Let’s say they then have to eat $3 million. That’s $7 million spent for an OK half-season. Considering Blanton’s salary over the full season is $8.5 million, it’s almost a pointless effort to unload him at the break, unless the Phillies don’t have to eat any greens and can thereby free up $4.5 million from 2011, plus $8.5 million from 2012, totaling $13 million freed up in 2012 signings. This $13 million saved is the best case of the middle case, a rather conservative estimate assuming the Phillies would not have to eat any of Blanton’s salary. Let’s say the Phillies wait until the end of the season to trade Blanton, under the same conditions. They free up $8.5 million. Again, this is if no salary must be eaten. Percentage chance best case of middle case (approx. $13 million freed up)  happens: 11.1%. Percentage chance the Phillies unload Blanton at the end of the year without eating salary ($8.5 million freed up): 11.1%. Percentage chance Blanton improves, but not enough to free the Phillies from eating any of his salary: 11.1%

Worst Case Scenario: Blanton performs even worse than last season and Kendrick and/or Worley end up starting in his place. With Blanton benched, his $8.5 million 2011 salary is a sunk cost. The Phillies are basically paying $8.5 million for a sack of balls. At the end of the season, it’s a must-do to unload him, but they have to eat $5 million of his 2012 salary, freeing up just $3.5 million for other deals. Percentage chance this scenario happens, whereby the Phillies have a net gain of around $3.5 million: 33.3%

2. If the Phillies unload Blanton before the start of the 2011 season…

Only Case Scenario: The Phillies eat $8-9 million of Blanton’s remaining $17 million, freeing up $8-9 million committed dollars. Percent chance the Phillies get this money, given they unload Blanton prior to 2011: 100%

I’d take the guaranteed $8-9 million for other signings any day, especially knowing Kendrick (who had about the same average production as Blanton in 2010 and who will probably be making around $2 million in 2011, arbitration decision pending) and Worley (whose minor league stats and 13 IP in the majors project him as a solid guy in the fifth slot) will be around.

When it comes down to it, you can grumble and grumble over whether you think Blanton will improve and up his trade stock or even contribute substantially to the rotation, but the option that makes the most financial sense is to unload him now, before the 2011 season even thinks about beginning.

The only reason I would suggest considering keeping Blanton is if the Phillies have to eat more than $9 million of his salary. Even if that were the case, I would still heavily lean toward accepting the guaranteed, rather than banking on something you just cannot predict.